Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Predictions for Obama as the 44th POTUS

America's Next First Family!

Given the political egg that's fallen on McCain's face, and the continuing fall in Sarah Palin's approval rating, the political betting market, Intrade is predicting an Obama win by a landslide!

Obama - 311 EV
McCain - 227 EV

Intrade works similar to a stock market, where trades are made based on expected price.

Obama has certainly led an impressive campaign with emphasis on the ground game with getting out the vote (GOTV).

Nate Silver at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ has Obama winning with 330 EV.

Looking at the NBC Election Map - you can make your own predictions by clicking the state Blue for Obama or Red for McCain.

My prediction is 335 Obama 203 for McCain.

My Safe Obama: 211 EV
ME (4)
VT (3)
MA (12)
NY (31)
NJ (15)
CT (7)
RI (4)
DE (3)
MD (10)
IL (21)
IA (7)
MI (17)
CA (55)
WA (11)
OR (7)
HI (4)

My Lean Obama: 91 EV
NH (4)
PA (21)
MN (10)
WI (10)
FL (27)
NV (5)
NM (5)
CO (9)

Tossup (likely Obama): 33 EV
VI (13)
OH (20)

VI and OH are tight, but I think given the voter registration, we could see it tip to Obama. I guess we will see how good my predictions are on election day!

I for one am looking forward to the day that Obama and his running mate Joe Biden take over the White House!

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